摘要
通过采用LMDI分解方法对我国碳排放强度进行两阶段因素分解,第一阶段对碳排放强度进行LMDI分解,结果表明能源强度和能源结构是影响碳排放强度变化的主要因素,其中能源强度的贡献率超过90%。第二阶段对影响碳排放强度变化的主要因素能源强度进行LMDI分解,结果表明能源效率和产业结构对能源强度变化有显著影响。最后利用协整分析方法对分解变量进行长期协整关系验证,结果表明碳强度、能源结构、能源效率和产业结构存在长期均衡稳定关系。
With the rapid development of global economy, environmental problems have become more and more prominent. In 2007, China＇ s CO2 carbon emission has surpassed the United States and became the world＇ s largest CO2 emitter. Hence in the global energy saving and emission reduction targets, China has much more energy saving and emission reduction chal- lenges than other countries. This paper utilized two - stage LMDI decomposition to decompose China＇ s carbon emission in- tensity. In the first stage, LMDI model was applied to decompose carbon emission intensity. Decomposition result shows that the reduction of carbon emission intensity in China is mainly influenced by energy intensity and energy structure. Ener- gy intensity contributes more than 90% to the changes of carbon emission intensity, while the impact of energy structure is relatively small. In the second stage LMDI decomposition of energy intensity was conducted, which is the main factor influ- encing the changes of carbon emission intensity. Decomposition result shows that the reduction of energy intensity in China can be attributed to the industrial structure and energy efficiency during 1991 -2011. Finally, Johansen Co -integration test was employed to test the long- term co -integration relationship between variables. The result suggests that there has been a long- term equilibrium and stable relationship among carbon emission intensity and energy structure, technological progress, industrial structure. Based on the above analysis, three suggestions for energy saving and emission reduction are provided.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第20期261-266,共6页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目"2030年碳排放达峰目标视域下的我国区域碳市场模拟研究"(71573254)
江苏省"青蓝工程"中青年学术带头人人才项目(2014年)
江苏教育科学重点项目"新时期经济管理类研究生发表国际高水平论文创新能力培养研究与实践"(B-b/2015/01/027)
