摘要
利用1955—2013年我国主要城市90个站点冬季月平均气温数据,采用线性回归分析方法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、Matlab小波分析法和空间插值法对我国主要城市近60年冬季平均气温的时空变化特征进行了分析.分析结果:1近60年我国主要城市冬季平均气温呈上升趋势,年均温的增温速率为0.301℃/10年.2我国主要城市冬季平均气温突变点出现在1985年,20世纪60年代为温度下降期,70年代开始增温,80年代增温速率最大,90年代增温速率开始减缓,2000年之后增温速率继续下降.3小波分析结果表明,我国主要城市冬季平均气温具有3、6、11年的变化周期,主周期为6年.4温度变率方面,我国北方城市增温速率大于南方,突变点后气温增温速率减缓,但西南地区在突变点后气温增温速率增加,西南地区冬季增温速率与华北及东北地区冬季增温速率存在明显差异.
Based on the mean temperature of month of major cities in China during 1955-2013,concluding 90 stations,linear regressive analysis,Mann-Kendal mutation test,analysis of wavelets and spatial interpolation were applied to analyze the change characteristics of space-time of the major cities in China from 1955 to 2013. The results were following：①the mean temperature of winter month in major cities of China showed an increasing trend, rising at the rate of 0.304℃/10 year.②The mutation year of the mean temperature of month in winter was 1985 of major cities in China,the temperature of winter dropped in the 60’s and began to increase in the 70’s,the rate of temperature increasing was fastest in the 80’s,the speed of temperature increasing slowed down in 1990s and continually declined after 2000 year.③The results of analysis of wavelets proposed,there were 3,6,11 year cycle change of the mean temperature of winter month in major cities of China,6 year was the main cycle.④In the aspect of the rate of temperature change,the warming rate of North of China was higher than that of South of China,the warming rate of temperature was slowing down after 1985 year,but the speed of temperature was increasing in the Southwest after 1985 year,there were obvious differences between North China,Northeast and Southwest in the speed of winter temperature increasing.
作者
孟艳灵
殷淑燕
殷方圆
Meng Yanling Yin Shuyan Yin Fangyuan(College of Tourism and Environmental Sciences , Shannxi Normal University ,Xi＇an 710119, China)
出处
《河南科学》
2016年第10期1717-1723,共7页
Henan Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41271108)
中央高校基本科研业务费创新团队项目(GK201301003)
关键词
主要城市
冬季气温
时空变化
the major cities
winter temperature
change of temporal and spatial
