摘要
利用常规观测资料、再分析格点数据、EC和T639模式预报资料,对2015年11月26日夜间呼和浩特地区一次降雪过程进行了诊断分析,认为这次降雪过程是由低空切边线叠加地面倒槽共同影响而导致的。降雪过程南风维持时间较短,系统尺度较小,而且系统较为浅薄等特征是导致未能成功预报的主要原因。通过分析,我们也得出了一些总结和经验:(1)RMAPS模式对于弱天气的把握更有优势。而在形势的把握中,可以多应用EC细网格模式;(2)对于弱降雪天气过程,应把着眼点放在对模式产品的综合分析;再对实况资料进行仔细分析并与天气概念模型比较,找出关键层,尤其关注关键层物理量的变化(本次过程中850 h Pa风场、湿度的变化),才能得到优于模式的预报结果。
A snowfall at the night of Nov. 26th, 2015 in Hohhot had been analyzed by use of conventional observa- tion materials, re - analysis of grid data, prediction forecast materials of EC and T639 model. It was considered that this snowfall had been caused by the common influence of stacking trimming line at low altitude and ground in- verse trough. Through the analysis, （ 1 ） RMAPS model was suitable to weak weather. EC fine - mesh model could be used. （2） To weak snowfall weather, the comprehensive analysis of model should be paid more attention. Ac- cording to anatomizing the real weather and comparing with the weather conceptual model, the key stratum should be found out, especially the change of physical quantity in key stratum should be paid more attention （the change of wind field and moisture at 850 hPa during this progress）, which could help to get the forecast results better than the model.
出处
《内蒙古林业科技》
2016年第3期58-61,共4页
Journal of Inner Mongolia Forestry Science and Technology
关键词
降雪
诊断分析
漏报
snowfall
diagnostic analysis
missing report
