摘要
简要分析了第2代季节气候预测模式系统在东北夏季累计降水量的预测能力,结果表明:模式数据与观测值空间分布较一致,数值较观测值偏小,波动程度低。辽宁地区夏季累计降水量距平百分率模式与观测结果相关性较高,东北中部地区较差。季节气候预测模式系统具有一定的预测能力,但准确率有待进一步加强。
The forecasting ability of precipitation in Northeast China of second-generation extended-range forecast system （DERF2.0） is briefly assessed in this article. The results indicate that DERF2.0 data has the same spatial distribution with CMAP data,but which is smaller and have less obvious evident change trend than CMAP data. The effect of initial matching is distinct in the DERF2.0 data compared with CMAP data in Liaoning Province,but which is indistinct in the central part of Northeast China. The results showed that DERF2.0 has considerable capability of forecasting summer precipitation in Northeast China, but forecast accuracy should be improved.
出处
《现代农业科技》
2016年第18期162-164,共3页
Modern Agricultural Science and Technology
关键词
季节气候预测模式系统
夏季降水
预测能力
东北地区
seasonal climate forecast system
summer precipitation
forecasting ability
Northeast China
