摘要
利用内蒙古47个气象站点1961-2013年的气象资料,采用线性趋势分析、标准降水指数分析方法,研究内蒙古近53年干旱的时空变化特征.结果表明:1区域年降水量以-0.039 5mm/a的速率缓慢下降,在空间上呈现总体下降、局部上升的格局.2春季和冬季降水呈现全区性增加趋势,秋季东部减少西部增加,夏季呈全区下降趋势,且速率(-0.32mm/a)远大于年降水量,其中半干旱区下降趋势最明显,是气候变化的敏感地带.3年际尺度SPI呈现干旱波动性增强、强度加剧、影响范围扩大并向东移动的趋势,且与当地环境变化情况相吻合.4季节尺度SPI对降水的敏感性更强,其中各季节干旱逐渐频发且强度加剧,表明干旱强度是造成研究区生态环境恶化的重要因素,在空间上季节尺度SPI对半干旱到干旱的过渡地带响应最为敏感,而对极干旱的阿拉善地区敏感性较差,即SPI对降水变率大的地区指示性更好.5相对于降水距平法和降水Z指数,SPI在对干旱的定量化和滞后效应的描述方面更加直观且准确,能为区域干旱情况做出可靠的评价.
In order to monitor the drought disaster variation in Inner Mongolia,the fundamental characteristics and temporal-spatial distribution of the drought disaster were analyzed using methods of linear regression and Standardized Precipitation Index based on climate data from 1961 to 2013.The results of trend analysis showed that annual precipitation in research area had a downward trend with a rate of-0.0395mm/a,and the pattern of a decrease trend in the whole area and an increase trend in locality was significant spatially.In addition,there were obvious differences between every seasonal precipitation,an upward trend over the total area was showed in spring and winter,autumn with a decrease-increase situation from west to east,and summer decreased faster than annual precipitation with a rate of-0.32mm/a.In spatial pattern,the most significant downward trend occurred in semi-arid region,which is sensitive to climate change.The drought volatility and intensity enhance was analyzed by SPI12,with the range of influence enlarging and moving to east.While the SPI3 was more sensitive to short period rainfall,indicating that increasing intensity of drought resulted in the eco-environment degeneration,where semi-arid region as seasonal drought high incidence area was extremely sensitive to climate changes,which means that SPI was a good monitor to the area owning larger precipitation changing rate.Compared with precipitation anomaly and precipitation Z index,SPI was more perceptual and accurate in quantify and procrastination effect descriptions,which could evaluate the area drought condition reliably.
出处
《内蒙古师范大学学报（自然科学汉文版）》
CAS
北大核心
2016年第4期533-539,共7页
Journal of Inner Mongolia Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41261008)
国家重大基础研究项目(2012CB426508)
内蒙古草原英才项目(CYYC2013103)
内蒙古水安全协同中心项目
关键词
干旱
标准降水指数
降水量
内蒙古
线性趋势分析
drought
standard precipitation index
precipitation
Inner Mongolia
linear regression
