摘要
以丹江流域9个气象台站的降水资料和荆紫关水文站实测的径流、泥沙数据为基础,运用Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验法、Pettitt变点检测法分析了丹江流域1980~2009年的径流量、输沙量和降雨量的变化趋势,检测了输沙量的突变点,并使用水文分析法定量分离了气候变化和人类活动对流域输沙量的影响。结果表明:丹江流域径流量、输沙量均显著下降,降雨量有不显著的下降趋势;输沙量在1989年发生突变,与基准期1980~1989年相比,丹江流域1990~2009年的径流量、输沙量以及降雨量分别减少了57%、57%和11%。输沙量和径流量相关性较高(R^2=0.47),而与降雨量的相关性相对较低(R^2=0.28),降雨对输沙量的直接作用较小。气候变化对丹江流域的输沙量的变化起主导作用(60%),但人类活动的作用仍不可忽视(40%)。
Based on the precipitation data at 9 weather stations of the Danjiang River basin and the observed runoff and sediment discharge data in Jingziguan Hydrological Station, the author applied Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test and Pettitt test to analyze the variation trends of runoff, sediment discharge and precipitation from 1980 to 2009 in the Danjiang River basin, detected the abrupt point of sediment discharge, and used hydrological analysis method to quantitatively separate the impact of climate change and human activities on the sediment discharge in this basin. The significant decreasing trend of both runoff and sediment discharge in the Danjiang River basin was detected, and precipitation displayed a non-significant declining trend. The abrupt point of sediment discharge was found in the year 1989, and the runoff, sediment discharge and precipitation in this basin during 1990-2009 were decreased respectively by 57%, 57% and 11% as compared with those during 1980-1989. The sediment discharge showed a relatively high correlation with the runoff （ R^2 = 0.47 ） , while a relatively low correlation with the precipitation （R^2= 0.28） , which means that the direct effect of precipitation on sediment discharge is small. Climate change was the dominant factor （ 60% ） resulting in the sediment discharge variation in the Danjiang River basin, but the effect of human activities （40%） on it could not be ignored.
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2016年第9期102-106,118,共6页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
国家自然科学基金(41390464
41401027)
国家自然科学基金项目(41071012)
国家重点实验室水科学与工程开放研究基金项目(sklhse-2014-A-01)
陕西省煤油气水土流失补偿项目"陕西能源开发项目水土流失监测技术研究及信息系统建设"
