摘要
利用2008—2009年热带对流年计划项目(Year of Tropical Convection)提供的西北太平洋地区0.25°×0.25°的观测资料和JTWC最佳路径资料,探讨了"育婴袋"假说在西北太平洋地区热带气旋生成地点的适用性问题。通过对典型台风实例的应用分析,发现在弱环境场风切变情况下,对具有深厚垂直结构的扰动,"育婴袋"假说的指示效果较好;而在强垂直风切变情况下,或初始扰动浅薄时,该假说的效果不太理想。热带气旋的生成不仅受低层环流影响,还受高低层环流的调制,由垂直平均得出的Okubo-Weiss(OW)指数可综合反映出这种高低空调制作用;同时,由于其计算方法简单实用,可作为热带气旋生成地点的一个指标。
By using 2008-2009 YOTC reanalysis data （ with resolution of 0.25°× 0.25°） , Marsupial Paradigm, which is originally used to examine the hurricanes genesis location in the Atlantic basin, is investigated for its potential implication in typhoons cyclogenesis location over the North-Western Pacific. To this end, several typical tropical cyclones under different environmental vertical wind shears are selected. The results show that, this paradigm is likely a useful tool to forecast the genesis position of an embryo with deep vertical structure under weaker larger-scale environmental wind shears. On the contrary, forecast errors are larger for a shallow system under complicated mean flows. The genesis of tropical cyclones is not only affected by the low-level circulation, but the interaction between low and high level flows. Furthermore, a vertically mean OW parameter can be a helpful index to forecast tropical cyclogenesis location.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第4期494-502,共9页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41575056
41275095)
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2015CB452803
2012CB955204)
中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室开放研究基金(AMF201403)共同资助
关键词
“育婴袋”假说
西北太平洋
台风生成地
预报
Marsupial Paradigm
Western North Pacific
typhoons cyclogenesis location
forecast
