摘要
"安倍经济学"自推出以来已经过去三年半时间,现在终于开始面临最严峻的局面:"安倍经济学"的重要推动力—超级金融宽松政策正在失去效力。消费者物价指数涨幅持续低迷,经济增长率呈现疲态。但是,日本央行采取大量购入国债的政策后已是开弓之箭,难以平稳过渡回之前的常规政策。单靠金融、财政政策刺激经济的效果也日益趋近极限。财政重建、社会保障与税收制度一体化改革、实现消费税上调和经济恢复景气之间的平衡等迫在眉睫的重要课题堆积如山。本文在对安倍经济学进行回顾和评价的基础上,对日本接下来的宏观经济政策的可能方向进行分析和推测。
The macroeconomic policy package, called the Abenomics by many, has been launched for three and half years, and finally faced its biggest difficulty： the super easing financial policy, one of the most important engine of this package, seems losing its power, as inflation stays moderate and growth remains slack. However, as the Bank of Japan has purchased too much bonds, a transition back to traditional fiscal policy without market turmoil is almost impossible. Effect of fiscal and financial policy stimulus is close to its ceiling. Meanwhile, there are a bunch of challenges at hand, such as fiscal rebuild, overall reform of social secu-rity and tax system, and tradeoff between raising consumption tax and economic robust. Thus, this paper reviews the accomplishment and impact of Abenomics, as a foundation for inference over Japan＇s future policy adjustment.
出处
《财政科学》
2016年第8期90-97,106,共9页
Fiscal Science
