摘要
近年来我国煤电供需不平衡的矛盾日益严重,运力瓶颈、季节周期等导致港口主导下煤炭供应链脆弱,阻碍供应链的顺畅运行甚至产生中断风险。研究利用贝叶斯网络计算物流、资金流和信息流影响下的港口煤炭供应链脆弱性,构建定量分析模型,并界定了港口主导下煤炭供应链的结构及其脆弱性的含义,对供应链上游、中游、下游三个环节的脆弱性进行分析。利用故障树分析法和贝叶斯网络模型分别对供应链短期脆弱性和长期脆弱性进行网络参数计算,并通过实证研究找出港口主导下煤炭供应链上存在的薄弱环节。研究成果为煤炭供应链上企业的运行决策提供了理论依据,对优化我国港口主导下煤炭供应链结构、促进煤电供应链发展具有重要的战略意义。
With the increasing imbalance between coal supply and demand recently, transport capacity bottleneck, seasonal cycles and other factors have caused the vulnerability of coal supply chains with dominant sea port, and hindered the supply chains working will even trigger the interruption risk. The paper constructs a quantitative analysis model of the port coal supply chain vulnerability under the influence of logistics,capital flow and information flow through Bayesian network. By proposing the structure and implication of coal supply chain vulnerability with a dominant sea port, the supply chain vulnerability of upstream link, middle link and downstream is anal-yzed, then the fault tree analysis and Bayesian network model are used to calculate the network parameter for short-term vulnerability and long-term vulnerability, thus the weak links in the coal supply chain is identified through empirical research. The research results provide a theoretical basis for the enterprises operational decision for the coal supply chain, and have important significance to optimize coal supply chain structure dominated by sea ports and promote the coal supply chain development.
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第10期7-15,共9页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
河北省社会科学基金青年项目(HB16GL095)
关键词
港口煤炭供应
煤炭供应链
供应链脆弱性
供应链结构
Sea port coal supply
Coal supply chain
Supply chain vulnerability
Supply chain structure
