摘要
文章基于国家气候中心现行厄尔尼诺监测和诊断业务规范,分析了2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件的现状及其演变过程,并将之与1982/1983年以及1997/1998年厄尔尼诺事件做对比。监测结果表明,2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件是自1951年以来继1982/1983年和1997/1998年厄尔尼诺事件之后的第三次超强厄尔尼诺事件,并且在持续时间、峰值强度、累计海温距平和海温距平连续超过2.0℃的时间等指标上均强于前两次超强厄尔尼诺事件。赤道中西太平洋的多次西风爆发过程驱动次表层异常暖海温东传,使得厄尔尼诺事件发展。与前两次超强厄尔尼诺事件对比发现,2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件盛期暖海温中心强度和范围较前两次事件偏小,南方涛动强度较前两次偏弱,西风爆发过程中西风异常强度也小于前两次事件。
Based on the current standard of National Climate Centre,China Meteorological Administration,the recent status and evolution of the 2015/2016 El Nino event are introduced and compared to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Nino events.Monitoring results show that the 2015/2016 El Nino event is the third super El Nino event since 1951 after the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events,and it exceeded the former two super events based on the index of duration,peak intensity,accumulated SSTA and the months in which SSTA consecutively exceeds 2.0°C.The several westerly bursts over the equatorial central-western Pacific drove the eastward propagation of the anomalous warm sub-SST,resulting in the development of the El Nino event.The intensity of the warm SSTA center in the peak period of 2015/2016 event is weaker,and the range is smaller than the former two super El Nino events,so is the intensity of the anomalous westerly in the westerly bursts.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第5期540-547,共8页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB955901)资助
关键词
厄尔尼诺
监测标准
海表温度
热容量
El Nino
monitoring standard
sea surface temperature（SST）
ocean heat content（OHC）
