摘要
根据PSR模型、系统动力学模型和情景仿真模拟,构建了城市环境绩效动态评估模型,定量表达了城市环境绩效的现状水平和动态发展趋势。依据天津市发展特点和资源环境概况,首先基于PSR模型构建了环境绩效评估体系,并将其与系统动力学模型相耦合,通过情景分析模拟评估了惯性情景、优化发展情景、低碳发展情景和绿色发展情景四种城市发展情景的环境绩效水平。结果表明:天津市2009-2013年环境绩效综合指数(EPI)不断上升,但始终处于"较低"等级。在四种情景发展趋势上,低碳发展情景和绿色发展情景的EPI增幅较大,均于2020年提升至"较好"等级,其中绿色发展情景最优(67.6);而优化发展情景、惯性情景EPI增幅较小,2020年处于"一般"等级。可以看出,以中新生态城绿色发展为范式的天津可持续发展模式是高效实现"美丽天津"建设目标的最优路径。
According to Pressure-State-Response model, system dynamics model and scenarios simulation, a dynamic evaluation model of city environmental performance is built to describe the current level and dynamic trends of urban environmental performance in a quantitative way. Firstly, based on the characteristics of economic development and environmental and resources situation of Tianjin, the environmental performance assessment system is constructed by using PSR model. Secondly, it＇s coupled with the system dynamics model to simulate development of the city. Finally, four development scenarios are set up：inertia scenario, optimized scenario, low-carbon scenario and green scenario. And through scenario simulation, the trends of environmental performance index in different scenarios are simulated to express the dynamic changes of city sustainable development in different ways. The evaluation results show that the EPI of Tianjin has been increasing from 2009 to 2013, but itls still in low＇level. The simulation of EPI trends of four scenarios show that the EPI ranking of four scenarios is： inertia scenariooptimized seenario〈low-carbon scenario〈green scenario. The EPI of inertia scenario and optimized scenario are still in the average level in 2020, while the EPI of low-carbon scenario and green scenario both enhance to the good level. The study indicates that the implementation of eco-city green development pattern is the most efficient and optimal path to achieve the goal of the construction of beautiful Tianjin.
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第3期121-126,共6页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题"村镇环境评价与预警平台建设"(2012BAJ24B04)
关键词
环境绩效
PSR模型
系统动力学
动态评估
情景分析
environmental performance
PSR model
SD model
dynamic assessment
scenario analysis
