摘要
针对重大事件网络舆情数量的激增,网络舆情安全监管和预警形势严峻的情况,提出一种基于ARIMA和BP神经网络组合模型的网络舆情情感预测模型,进而对新浪微博上采集的"余姚水灾事件"进行文本情感值计算,并对其情感变化趋势进行综合分析和预测。预测结果表明,也组合预测方法相对于单一预测方法具有更高的精度,进而说明该模型在网络舆情情感预测中的应用是可行的。
As the number of significant events of public opinion surged in recent years,it is extremely serious to keep the security of the Network public opinion and to warn early. Thus,it is important to grasp the trend of public opinion in the macro. This paper presents a network public sentiment forecast based on ARIMA and BP neural network. The emotional value of the text of ＂ the flood incident in Yuyao＂ on Sina Weibo is calculated. Then the comprehensive analysis and forecast of the trend of emotional change are given. Forecast results show that relative to,method of combined forecasting is more precise than the single forecast method,indicating the application of this model in the emotion forecast of Internet public sentiment is feasible.
出处
《电子科技》
2016年第5期83-87,共5页
Electronic Science and Technology
基金
2014年度国家级大学生创新创业训练计划基金资助项目(201410356019)
2015年浙江省大学生科技创新活动计划暨新苗人才计划基金资助项目(2015R409005)
关键词
网络舆情
情感值
组合模型
预测
public opinion
emotional value
combined model
forecast
