摘要
随着老年市场需求的增长,社会化养老服务产业应运而生。针对当下我国养老地产项目的建设热潮及养老地产项目投资环境的复杂性、投资开发的盲目性、运营模式的单一性等现实问题,文章从开发商的角度,分析养老地产项目投资风险的影响因素,选取其中的关键性指标构建养老地产项目投资风险评价体系。采用结构方程对实际调查问卷数据进行模型分析,计算出投资风险评价体系中各指标的权重,总结投资开发养老地产项目应率先考虑的十大风险因素,同时结合算例进行投资方案风险评价。研究结果表明,该方法能够较好的结合定性与定量因素对养老地产项目投资方案的风险进行评价,具有结果客观、切实可行等优点,能够帮助开发商有效评判和规避投资风险。
As the growth of the elderly market demand,social endowment service industry arises at the historic moment. Aiming at the construction wave of pension estate project in the present,and the complicacy of investment climate in pension real estate project,the blindness of investment and exploitation,the oneness of operation pattern and other realistic problems,analyze the influence factors of the investment risk of pension real estate project,and select one of the key indicators to build pension real estate project investment risk evaluation system from the perspective of developers.Depending on the data of actual questionnaire and using the structural equation model to calculate the weight of the different investment risk. Summarizing the ten risk factors ought to be considered first of investing and developing the pension real estate project,at the same time,evaluating the risk of investment program combined with a case. Results indicate that the method can combine the qualitative and quantitative factors well to evaluate the investment risk of pension real estate project. It＇s objective and feasible,it can help the developers to judge and avoid investment risks effectively.
出处
《土木工程与管理学报》
北大核心
2016年第2期56-61,73,共7页
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
关键词
结构方程
养老地产
风险评价
structural equation modeling
pension real estate
risk assessment
