摘要
概述:p值是生物医学研究中使用最广泛的统计学概念。最近,学界关于p值的效用以及p值的滥用与已发表的医学研究无法重复性较差之间可能存在的关联性有一些争论。在本文中,我们以通俗易懂的方法介绍p值,并且解释它的随机性和局限性。然而,目前提出其它能替代p值的概念也有同样的局限。我们得出了如下的结论:对于检验临床试验的中的零假设(null hypothesis)和替代假设(alternative hypothesis)来说,使用p值是一种有效的方法。然而,仅仅利用从某单一统计检验所得出的p值来判断研究项目的科学价值则是一种对p值的滥用;为得到可信的临床研究结果,我们需要将利用P值得到的推断检验的结果与次要结果以及其它数据进行整合。对于在研究中阐释统计结果而言,了解p值的多样性和局限性是至关重要的。
The p-value is the most widely used statistical concept in biomedical research. Recently, there are controversies over its utility and over the possible relationship between p-value misuse and the relatively high proportion of published medical research that cannot be replicated. In this paper, we introduce the p-value in layman＇s terms and explain its randomness and limitations. However, we also point out that the available alternatives to p-value suffer similar limitations. We conclude that using p values is a valid way to test the null and alternative hypotheses in clinical trials. However, using the p-value from a single statistical test to judge the scientific merit of a research project is a misuse of the p-value; the results of inference tests using p-values need to be integrated with secondary results and other data to arrive at clinically valid conclusions. Understanding the variability and limitations of the p-value is important for the interpretation of statistical results in research studies.
出处
《上海精神医学》
CSCD
2015年第6期381-385,共5页
Shanghai Archives of Psychiatry
基金
supported by the VA Cooperative Studies Program through the US Department of Veterans Affairs
关键词
P值
统计推断
假设检验
统计显著性
科学可重复性
p-value
inferential statistics
hypothesis testing
statistical significance
scientific repeatability
