摘要
In the last few decades, water scarcity and its implications to economic, social and political dimensions has become a hot topic, especially for research agendas that try to establish a causal relationship with violent conflicts. However, these agendas fail to deliver their promises in not providing empirical evidences to confirm theory. In this sense, the present paper provides a fresh look to water scarcity implications, presenting a theoretical framework and new causal mechanism based on complex interdependence theory applied to the physical reality in an international basin. As such, the inferred causal mechanism, its parts and causal direction is investigated applying process-tracing technique to the Rio Grande-Colorado River. The paper finds by tracing the causal mechanism evidences to confirm new theory and enough analytical power to test in other cases to increase confidence in theory to fulfill generalization requirement.
