摘要
本文通过构建一个六部门的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,引入利率管制等方程来刻画中国央行货币政策行为,在生产函数中引入资本利用率,同时把资本利用率引入折旧,将折旧处理成资本利用率的一个函数,模拟中国利率市场化改革带来的冲击效应。结果表明,当前利率市场化对宏观经济的冲击效应并不显著,甚至大部分经济变量对利率市场化冲击并不敏感。利率市场化的风险并没有想象中的那么巨大。
This paper constructs a New Keynesian DSGE model related to six-sector, and introduces interest rate control and other equations to describe the monetary policy behaviors of China＇s central bank. By introducing production func- tion into the rate of capital utilization and the rate of capital utilization into the depreciation so that the depreciation is regarded as a function of the rate of capital utilization, the paper presents a simulation of the impacts effect of the liberalization of China＇s interest rates. The results of the paper show that, at present, the impact effect of the liberalization of interest rates on macro economy is not significant, and even most economic variables are not sensitive to the impact of the liberalization of interest rates; the risks of the liberalization of interest rates are not as great as imagined.
出处
《金融论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第3期48-63,共16页
Finance Forum
关键词
利率市场化
动态随机一般均衡模型
资本利用率
折旧
liberalization of interest rate
DSGE model
rate of capacity utilization
depreciation
