摘要
为了在列控系统的设计阶段和安全评估阶段对系统隐患进行把握,对系统的设计进行定量安全分析是至关重要的。定量分析的结果可以用来判断和比较设计的优劣,也可用来评估隐患的风险,并根据分析结果判断所采取的隐患控制措施是否使隐患的风险被控制在可接受的范围内。本文应用以Markov决策过程为基础的建模方法,对列控系统中的双车追踪场景进行系统行为建模,集成系统正常行为和失效行为,提出综合系统行为模型CBM,并通过概率模型检验工具PRISM对危险失效概率进行准确计算,提出列控系统定量安全分析方法。
In order to manage the hazards in the phase of train control system design and safety assessment,the quantitative safety analysis of train control system is crucial.The results of the quantitative analysis can be used to judge and compare the pros and cons of the prototype designs,to evaluate the probabilistic risks of hazards and to determine whether hidden dangers can be controlled within the acceptable range with the risk mitigation measures taken.In this paper,a Markov Decision Process based modelling method was proposed to build system behavior model of the two consecutive trains in the train control system,to integrate the normal behaviours and failure behaviours of the system and to put forward Comprehensive Behaviour Model（CBM）.The dangerous failure probability of the hazard was calculated under the probabilistic model checking tool PRISM.The methodology of quantitative safety analysis for train control system was presented.
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第2期74-81,共8页
Journal of the China Railway Society
基金
国家自然科学基金(U1434209)
关键词
列控系统
定量安全分析
MARKOV决策过程
概率模型检验
train control system
quantitative safety analysis
Markov decision process
probabilistic model checking
