摘要
利用我国1990年至2013年能源消费与经济增长的时间序列数据,运用格兰杰因果分析方法,实证研究了我国能源消费与经济增长之间的关系,并且将能源消费细化为煤炭、石油、天然气等,使用协整分析的方法获得了经济增长同各类能源消费的计量模型。研究发现,能源消费与经济增长存在着单向的因果关系,具有长期的协整性,能源消费的增加能够促进经济增长,其中石油消费对经济的促进作用最强,煤炭和水、核电次之,天然气最弱。最后提出政策建议:应调整和优化能源消费结构,加快清洁能源的开发利用。
By applying the time series data of energy consumption and economic growth from 1990 to 2013 in china, and Grainger causal analysis method, an empirical study was done on the relationship between them and refine the energy consumption into coal, oil and gas, etc. The co-integration analysis method to obtain the measurement model of economic growth and all kinds of energy consumption was also applied. The study find that there is causality between them, which has a long-term co-integration, and the increase in energy consumption can promote economic growth. Oil is the most powerful consumption to promote the economy, then coal and water, nuclear power, the natural gas weakest.Finally it puts forward the policy recommendations： adjust and optimize the energy consumption structure, and speed up the development and utilization of clean energy.
出处
《沈阳师范大学学报（社会科学版）》
2016年第1期70-73,共4页
Journal of Shenyang Normal University(Social Science Edition)
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(14YJA79004)
辽宁省社会科学规划基金一般项目(L14BJY02)
关键词
经济增长
能源消费
能源结构
协整分析
economic growth
energy consumption
energy structure
co-integration analysis
