摘要
针对桂平航运枢纽水闸原设计洪水位由经验方法确定、缺乏理论依据的情况,利用Copula函数理论建立二变量设计洪水组合及洪水位的确定方法,并应用于桂平航运枢纽水闸设计洪水位的确定。结果表明:建立的4种常用Copula函数中,Clayton Copula函数拟合效果最好;设计洪水组合应该包括Copula同现重现期等于设计重现期的所有洪水组合;按照建立的方法计算得到桂平航运枢纽水闸设计洪水位为43.26 m,通过经验方法确定的原设计洪水位为43.48 m,可达到防洪要求,且略偏安全。
In view of that the design flood level of the Guiping Shipping Hub was calculated by an empirical method which lacked of theoretical basis,a new method based on Copula function to calculate the design flood combination of two variables and the flood level was established and applied to the sluice of the Guiping Shipping Hub. The result shows that Clayton Copula has the best fitting effect among the four common Copula functions; that the design flood combination should include all combinations,in which Copula function occurrence recurrence period is equal to the design recurrence period of the Guiping Shipping Hub sluice; that the design flood level of the sluice of Guiping Shipping Hub is 43. 26 m according to the new method; that the original design flood level（ 43. 48 m） is slightly higher and meet the design standard.
出处
《广西大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2016年第1期284-290,共7页
Journal of Guangxi University（Natural Science Edition）
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51178124)
广西自然科学基金资助项目(2014GXNSFBA118263)
广西大学科研基金资助项目(土科基-2012-02)
