摘要
"十三五"期间,全球天然气将进入供应宽松时代,"竞争"将成为天然气行业的主题,而价格是影响竞争胜败的核心要素。为了降低生产商和进口商的销售压力和亏损风险、保障供需双方权益、维护市场健康发展,有必要分析当前行业竞争态势,研究不同气源类型天然气的价格体系和价格走势。预测结果表明:随着国际油价持续振荡,LNG与管道天然气之间的竞价关系将呈现周期性变换。展望新的市场形势,提出了如下建议:①正视经济新常态下的市场,按照目前国内能源消费比重,天然气仍有很大的市场潜力;②正确看待油价长期走势,销售价格低于开发成本是不可持续的经济现象;③加大市场开发力度,规避恶性竞争;④完善天然气价格体系,实行天然气差别价格,避免出现因季节变化而供需失衡的情况。结论认为:相对缺乏灵活性的定价机制会给油气企业带来巨大的压力,而天然气产业属于民生产业,稳定供应仍是第一要务;面对新形势,需要政企联合,完善天然气价格体系、维持供需平衡,以促进行业发展。
During the 13th Five-Year Plan, global natural gas sector will move into an era of ease supply, when ＂competition＂ is the key point for natural gas industry, and that price is the essential factor thereof. For the purpose of relieving the sale pressure and loss of the manufacturers and importers, guaranteeing the rights and interests of suppliers and demanders, and keeping the healthy development of markets, it is necessary to analyze the current industry competition status and study price systems and trends of natural gas with different types of gas sources. Based on prediction results, the bidding relationship between LNG and pipeline natural gas will vary periodically with the continuous oscillation of international oil price. In view of the new market situations, the following suggestions were put for- ward. Firstly, face the markets in the new economic normal. Based on the current proportion of domestic energy consumption, there is still a great natural gas market potential. Secondly, face squarely the long-term trend of oil price. It is an unsustainable economic phe- nomenon that the sale price is lower than the development cost. Thirdly, strengthen market development and evade cut-throat competi- tion. And fourthly, perfect natural gas price systems, adopt discriminatory natural gas price and avoid supply-demand disequilibrium due to seasonal variations. It is concluded that the pricing mechanisms which are not flexible will lead to huge pressure on oil and gas enter- prises, and natural gas production is still in the category of people＇s livelihood industries, so the top business of natural gas industry is to stabilize the supply. Under the new situations, it is necessary for governments and enterprises to cooperate with each other so as to perfect natural gas price systems and keep supply-demand equilibrium, and consequently to promote the development of the industry.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第2期119-124,共6页
Natural Gas Industry
基金
中国石油天然气股份有限公司管道分公司科研课题"LNG区域市场容量与销售对策研究"(编号:20150208)
