摘要
中国水资源问题表现为供给不足和需求增加的矛盾日益严峻,而城市化过程是今后水资源需求持续增加的主要原因之一,也对水资源定价系统的改革带来了挑战。本研究将3种水资源定价系统分别引入可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,以城市化过程为模拟背景,比较了不同的水资源定价系统中水价变动、水资源部门间分配状况以及宏观经济变动水平。研究表明,在控制水供应总量的条件下,农业部门和城乡居民的用水需求增加,其它生产部门的用水需求减少,相对用水价格在不同系统中变化显著;不同系统对于GDP和各生产部门的影响并不显著,然而对城乡居民的福利有显著影响,平行定价系统将使农村居民获得最高的福利水平;进一步改革的统一定价系统将使城镇居民实现最高的福利水平。
China＇s water problem occurs from both sides of supply insufficiency and demand increasing, and the urbanization is the main reason for the pressure from demand side, which makes some challenges to the reform on the pricing system of water resources. We introduced three pricing systems of water resources into computable general equilibrium（CGE）models to simulate urbanization,where the changes in the water prices,the sectoral distribution of water resources and the macro economy within those different systems were compared. Based on previous CGE models considering water issues,there were two other extensions：（1）irrigation water inputs and their subsidies were inserted into farming production functions,and thus the price distortion between irrigation water and pipe water could be determined;and（2）a key substitution between valueadded input and pipe water input was equipped in the production functions of non- farming agriculture,construction,industry and service,reflecting the direct influence of pipe water price on these production sectors. We found that under the limitation of total water supply,the water demand from agricultural sectors and urban and rural households increases,and the water demand from industrial,construction and service sectors decreases. Precisely,the difference in the water prices was the main reason for difference in the sectoral allocation of water resources,and also the integrated water price would be lower than the irrigation water price but higher than the pipe water price. On the other hand,different systems did not bring obvious varieties to GDP and production sectors. However,changes in the welfare of urban and rural households from different systems were significant. The water parallel pricing system would let rural households earn the highest increase in their welfare due to the highest levels of income and consumption. The water pricing system under further reform would restrict the increase in consumer price,so that urban households could further expand consumption to achieve the highest increase in welfare.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第12期2421-2429,共9页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41271547)
国土资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室项目(CCA2013.14
CCA2015.11)
关键词
资源经济
一般均衡模型
水资源定价系统
城市化
宏观经济
中国
resources economy
general equilibrium model
pricing systems of water resources
urbanization
macro-economy
China
