摘要
开放经济下,贸易开放和FDI是影响碳排放的两个重要驱动因素.本文采用28个省市的面板数据,实证检验了我国人均二氧化碳EKC.为消除模型内生性问题,引入影响碳排放的两个重要控制变量贸易开放和FDI,及采用含滞后变量的动态面板模型,并采用差分GMM进行估计.研究结果发现:我国人均二氧化碳EKC呈倒N型,影响EKC形状的决定性因素是经济增长.我国贸易开放对碳排放的影响满足"污染天堂假说";FDI的碳排放效应则为负.我国人均碳排放下降的拐点处于人均GDP43716元(2005年不变价),这一拐点均低于前人的研究结论.在本文所选样本区间内,我国已有近68%的地区越过EKC的下降拐点位置.本文的研究对我国碳排放全面、加速回到下降的轨道上来具有重要政策含义.
In an open economy, trade openness and FDI are the two driving factors affecting carbon emissions. This paper examines China＇s EKC of per capita carbon emissions with 28 provinces＇ panel data. In order to eliminate endogeneity, we introduce two important variables, trade openness and FDI which can influence carbon emissions, and use lag variables in dynamic panel model with difference GMM method. Our findings show： the EKC of China＇s per capita carbon emissions is an inverted N, the critical factor to influence carbon emissions is economic growth. Trade openness conforms Pollution Haven Hypothesis, and FDI has a negative effect on carbon emissions. The decreasing turning point is at 43716RMB per capita GDP（2005 price）, which is under other studies＇ results. In our sampling, nearly 68~ regions surpass that point. Our study will help to turn carbon emissions to come back to the decreasing orbit totally and more quickly from policy view.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2015年第24期71-79,共9页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"我国全面参加全球国际比较项目(ICP)的理论与实践问题研究"(编号:13&ZD171)
国家社科基金重点项目"国民经济核算体系变化
创新及对中国的借鉴研究"(11ATJ001)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"新国民经济核算体系SNA(2008)基本框架与方法应用研究"(10YJA910011)
