摘要
双边货物贸易的发展往往会带动人员的交往,而两地人员交往反过来也会促进双边贸易的发展。对内地与香港而言,基于二元的VECM模型,旅游流与货物贸易之间这种相互影响关系得到了印证。首先,协整分析表明二者之间存在长期均衡关系,格兰杰因果关系检验验证了二者互为因果关系。其次,脉冲响应函数以及方差分解分析,进一步验证了二者之间的短期相互影响机制。以上分析均表明内地-香港地区之间旅游和货物贸易密切相关,二者之间存在相互促进的关系。
The bilateral commodity trade tends to spur bilateral movement of personnel. The latter in turn will promote further development of bilateral trade. As to China's Mainland and Hong Kong,with the bigram VECM model,the relationship between tourism flows and commodity trade has been confirmed. The cointegration analysis shows there is a long- run equilibrium relationship between these two. Moreover,Granger causality test has verified the causal relationship between them. At last,the impulse response function and variance decomposition analyses have explained their short- term interactions. All in all,these above analyses show that there is a positive relationship between tourism and commodity trade,namely one promotes the other.
出处
《旅游研究》
2016年第1期70-75,共6页
Tourism Research
基金
国家旅游局科研立项重点项目"中国出境出入境旅游的决定因素:整合制度
贸易与交通的经验分析"(14TACK009)
国家旅游局旅游业青年专家培养计划课题"出入境旅游与旅游效应"(TYEPT201404)
国家自然科学基金青年项目"入境出入境旅游对境外客源国文化表征的时空响应研究--以旅华日本游客为例"(412001148)资助
