摘要
改革开放以来我国投资率的周期性上升趋势,是由最终需求结构提升所决定的经济重化工业化程度持续提高和产业链不断延长拉动的,产业投资加速数的不断提升起到了决定性作用。模拟分析显示,受改革开放之前产业结构失衡和其后产业结构优化调整影响,我国投资率的动态均衡值一度偏离经济结构所要求的模拟动态均衡值,但1990年以后二者趋于一致。2007年以后投资率动态均衡值再度偏离模拟均衡值,主要是美国金融危机等外部冲击的结果。未来我国投资率将进入周期性下降阶段。
China＇s cyclical rise trend of investment rate is pulled by continued improvement in the degree of economic industrialization and the continuous extension of the industrial chain decided by the final demand structure enhance since the reform and opening up. The acceleration of industry investment has played a decisive role. Simulation analysis shows that influenced by the imbalance of industrial structure before the reform and opening and the subsequent industrial structure optimization adjustment, China＇s investment rate of dynamic equilibrium value once deviated economic structure required to simulate the dynamic equilibrium value, but after 1990 two tends to be the same. After 2007, the dynamic equilibrium value of the investment rate deviated from the equilibrimn value again, which is mainly the result of external shocks such as the U.S. financial crisis. The future of China＇s investment rate will enter a period of cyclical decline.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第12期70-82,共13页
Reform
关键词
投资率
消费率
经济转型与发展
investment rate, consumption rate, economic transformation and development
