摘要
为提高云南省对流性大风短时临近预报水平,使用历年大风日数和上百个对流性大风个例的探空、雷达资料,分析了T-lnp图、对流参数和雷达回波特征,总结提炼云南省对流性大风的预报预警指标。结果表明,非对流性大风和对流性大风具有不同的时空分布特征。非对流性大风受大尺度系统影响,主要出现在冬春季节,滇东、滇中和滇西北影响最重。对流性大风多受中小尺度系统影响,主要出现于夏季,呈现局地性特征。对流参数、T-lnp图在对流性大风的潜势预报中有一定指示意义。雷达产品在对流性大风的临近预报中有较好的反映。回波顶高和垂直累积液态水含量在对流性大风发生前和发生时的跃变特征是预警对流性大风发生的关键因子,可提供6~12min的提前预警时间。
In order to provide a valuable reference to short-term weather forecast of convective gales,the indices of forecast and early warning are summarized from T-lnp,convective parameters,radar echoes,etc.According to the cases of gales from 2006 to 2009,it is found that gales frequently occurred in summer and had a local feature,showing bimodal distribution with the peak values in April and July.The convective parameters had indicative meaning for convective gale forecasting.The beginning of a convective gale can be distinguished by radar echo intensity,radial velocity（≥10m爛s-1 at 0.5°radar elevation）,and the rapid reduction after the appearing of maximum echo top height and VIL.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2015年第6期1074-1084,共11页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用面上项目"云南省山洪地质灾害精细化气象预报预警业务系统研究"(CMAGJ2014M44)
云南省气象局预报员技术开发专项项目"云南主汛期短临强对流潜势预报技术研究"(TQ201506)
云南省气象局预报员技术开发专项项目"大风冰雹的预报方法研究"(YB200902)共同资助
