摘要
运量的预测是崇左地区铁路及物流业规划极其重要的依据。文章基于对崇左地区铁路运量影响因素的分析,利用灰度GM(1,N)预测模型对铁路运量上限进行预测,并建立BP神经网络预测模型对近年来崇左地区的铁路货运发生量进行预测,得到2014年铁路货运预测发生量及货运量上限。预测模型与实际数据拟合程度极高,且模型稳定,可根据模型及2015年规划基础数据对崇左地区铁路运量进行稳定预测。
The traffic forecast is the extremely important basis for railway and logistics planning in Chongzuo region.Based on the analysis of railway traffic impact factors in Chongzuo,this article predicted the upper limit of railway freight volume by using the gray GM（1,N）forecasting model,and established BP neural net-work forecasting model to predict the railway freight volume of Chongzuo region in recent years,and obtained the railway freight volume and upper freight volume limit in 2014.The forecasting model has the higher fitting degree with the actual data,and the model is stable,thus it can conduct the stable forecasting on the railway freight volume in Chongzuo region based on forecasting model and 2015 planning data.
出处
《西部交通科技》
2015年第9期92-95,共4页
Western China Communications Science & Technology
