摘要
基于洮河流域及周边雨量站点1956—2013年降水数据,采用小波分析方法分析了洮河流域近58 a来年降水量的变化趋势、多时间尺度主周期变化过程及其空间变化特征,并对未来态势进行了预测。结果表明:洮河流域年降水量整体呈减少趋势,倾向率为-4.60 mm/10 a;年降水量主要存在3个尺度的周期变化,分别为20、12、5 a,其中20 a尺度周期震荡最强且贯穿整个时域;流域降水量在空间上具有显著差异性,中部干旱黄土山丘区各尺度的周期波动明显强于上游的;对洮河流域未来一段时期降雨趋势的预测显示,除2017年降水偏少外,2014—2021年间其余年份的降水将处于正常水平或偏多。
Based on the precipitation data of Taohe River basin and surrounding rain-gauges from 1956 to 2013 and using Wavelet analysis method, it involved precipitation changing trend of Taohe River basin during recent 58 a, the changing process of the long-time scale main cycle and its spatial variation characteristics, and the forecast analysis about its future trend. The results have shown that the overall annual precipitation in the Taohe River basin has a tendency to decrease at an average rate of -4. 60 mm/10 a. Then, periodic variation of annual precipitation has 3 scales of 20 a, 12 a and 5 a respectively, in which 20 a scale periodic oscillation is the strongest and goes through the whole time domain. Next, it has obvious difference in spatial distribution that the cycle fluctuation about each scale around downstream area is significantly stronger than that of the upstream region. Finally, expectation can be made that during the period of 2014-2021, except somewhat less in 2017, the rest of the years will be in the normal or somewhat higher years.
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2015年第11期11-14,共4页
Yellow River
关键词
小波分析
多时间尺度特征
降水量
洮河流域
wavelet analysis
long-time scale characteristics
precipitation
Taohe River basin
