摘要
运用元胞自动机模型对研究区农村居民点变化进行模拟分析,采用案例推理方法获取元胞转换规则,以MARKOV方法对模型进行数量控制,采用改进的Kappa系数对模拟结果进行精度验证。以湖北省鄂州市1991-2004年农村居民点变化作为模型训练数据,2004-2009年变化数据对模型进行参数校验,模拟得到2009年农村居民点分布情景,对照2009年研究区实际情况,模拟结果总体百分比精度为96.68%,改进的Kappa系数值为0.93。研究结果表明基于案例推理元胞自动机模型具有较高的模拟精度,可用于农村居民点变化模拟分析。
As at 2011 China had a rural population of 657 million people, accounting for 48.7% of the total population. The rural residential area, as a gathering place for rural people, still accounts for the vast proportion of urban and rural residential land in China. The study of rural residential area has mostly focused on rural residential land consolidation, spatial distribution optimization and the driving forces of evolution; however, simulating the spatial distribution changes of rural residential area remains rare. Here, we applied cellular automata modeling to simulate rural residential area changes, gained cellular transformation rules using case based reasoning methods based on analogical reasoning principle of k-Nearest Neighbor similarity, determined the new case state at reasoning only by accounting similarities of cases with states already changed, drive variable standard deviations to decide the variable weight, applied the ROC method to determine the optimum valve of the only parameter k of the model, applied the Markov method to take total number control over the model, and used the improved Kappa coefficient to verify the accuracy of simulation results. Rural residential area from 1991 to 2004 was the model training data; calibration of model parameters was done with data for changes from 2004 to 2009; rural residential area distribution situation of 2009 was simulated by contrasting the actual situation for the study area in 2009. The total percentage accuracy of simulation results was 96.68% and the improved Kappa coefficient value was 0.93. The results show that the cellular automata model based on case based reasoning has a higher simulation accuracy, which can be used in simulation and analysis of changes in rural residential areas.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第9期1797-1806,共10页
Resources Science
基金
国家社科青年项目基金(12CGL065)
教育部人文社会科学青年项目基金(12YJC630306)
国家社科基金(14BJY057)
关键词
案例推理
元胞自动机
Kappa系数
农村居民点
case-based reasoning
cellular automation
Kappa coefficient
rural residential
