摘要
文章利用山东省1984-2012年GDP和进出口数据分析了山东省进出口贸易和经济运行的轨迹,测算了山东省外贸依存度和贡献率,并运用协整理论和误差修正模型对山东省进出口贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果表明:山东省经济增长与进口和出口之间都存在长期的正相关关系,出口对经济增长的促进作用更大。而从短期来看,只有出口对山东省经济增长具有显著的促进作用。
In this paper, we use the data of Shandong GDP and import ＆ export in 1984-2012, analysis the operating path of trade and economy about Shandong Province, measure the dependence on foreign trade and contribution rates. And use Cointegration theory and error correction model for the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Shandong Province to do the empirical research. The results showed that： Economic growth and the import ＆ export have the long-term positive relation. Exports can promote economic growth more quickly than imports on economic growth, but in the short-term , to economic growth in Shandong Province only exports plays a significant facilitating role.
出处
《红河学院学报》
2015年第5期64-67,共4页
Journal of Honghe University
关键词
进出口贸易
经济增长
协整检验
误差修正模型
import and export trade
economic growth
cointegration
error correction model
