摘要
采用TS评分、预报准确率、漏报率、空报率及预报偏差5项指标,对2013年6月1日～8月31日欧洲、日本及T639细网格定量降水预报产品进行统计检验。结果表明,欧洲、日本及T639模式不同预报时效对小雨预报TS评分最高,对中雨、大雨及暴雨以上TS评分依次降低,随预报时效延长,TS评分呈下降趋势;小雨预报TS值,24、48、72、96、120、144、168 h,日本模式明显高于欧洲和T639模式,36、60、108、132、156、180～204 h,欧洲明显高于日本和T639;中雨TS评分,欧洲明显高于日本和T639,大雨TS评分,72 h前日本明显高于欧洲和T639,72～168 h欧洲高于日本和T639;暴雨的预报能力差,欧洲、T639的TS为0,日本模式84 h预报TS为0.5。模式对小雨降水预报偏大,对中雨、大雨量级的降水预报偏小。三种模式在各量级预报中对长沙东部地区的预报能力明显优于中部、西部及南部。
In this paper, choosing the five indexes like TS score, prediction accuracy rate, false negative rate, false alarm rate and forecast bias, statistical tests were carried out on June 1st, 2013 to August 31 st in the mode of Europe, Japan and T639. The results showed that the TS score of the three modes for different forecast aging were the highest on the light rain, on the moderate rain and rainstorm following.With the forecast time prolonged, the TS score decreased. Specifically, The TS value of Japan on light rain was significantly higher than that of Europe and the T639 in 24, 48, 72, 96, 120, 144, 168 h, while the mode of Europe was the highest in 36, 60, 108, 132, 156, 180 ～204 h. Respect to the TS score of moderate, Europe was significantly higher than that of Japan and T639. To the heavy rain, Japan mode was significantly higher than that of Europe and T639 in 72 h, but Europe was higher in 72 ～ 168 h; All three modes were poor in the forecasting ability of rainstorm. Above all, the rain precipitation forecast to light rain was bigger, while to moderate-heavy rain was smaller.The prediction ability of the three kinds of models in eastern Changsha area is superior to the center, west and south part of Changsha.
出处
《湖南农业科学》
2015年第3期105-108,共4页
Hunan Agricultural Sciences
基金
湖南省科技计划项目(2013SK3244)
关键词
定量降水
数值预报产品
细网格
检验分析
TS评分
长沙
quantitative precipitation
numerical forecast products
fine mesh
test analysis
TS score
Changsha
