摘要
笔者运用不限制对称性和比例性的三变量模型,利用中国与OECD 34个成员国1978—2010年的面板数据,对购买力平价理论是否适用于解释人民币汇率波动进行了实证检验。结果表明,人民币汇率的波动并不满足购买力平价理论,存在对购买力平价的偏离。进一步,根据实际汇率分解模型,从贸易品价格对一价定律的偏离和巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应两个方面,对人民币汇率偏离购买力平价的原因进行了分析。结果表明,贸易品价格对一价定律的偏离和巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应可以很好地解释人民币汇率对购买力平价的偏离。而且,相对于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应,贸易品价格对一价定律的偏离对人民币实际汇率的影响程度更大。
Based on a three-variable model in which panel data between China and 34 members of OECD from symmetry and proportion is not restricted, using the 1978 to 2010, this paper empirically tests whether the purchasing power parity （PPP） theory is applicable to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. The result shows that the fluctuations of RMB exchange rate can＇t meet PPP, and it deviates from PPP. Further, According the decomposition model of the real exchange rate, we analyze reasons for this deviation from two aspects ： the deviation of traded goods price from the law of one price （LOP） and Balassa-Samuelson （ B - S） effect. The result shows that the deviation of traded goods price from LOP and the B -S effect can explain the reason of deviation of RMB exchange rate from the PPP theory. Compared to B - S effect, the deviation of traded goods price from LOP has a greater effect on RMB exchange rate.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第7期35-41,共7页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
天津市政府重大招标课题"金融创新与金融发展"(项目编号:TGPC-2013-D-0453)
关键词
人民币汇率
购买力平价
一价定律偏离
巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应
RMB exchange rate PurchasingBalassa-Samuelson （ B - S） effectpower parity Deviation from the Law of one price
