摘要
通过VAR模型,利用格兰杰因果模型分析新疆一般贸易、加工贸易和边境小额贸易的因果关系,得出三种贸易方式对新疆经济的增长具有一定的影响。之后利用广义脉冲响应以及方差分解的方法分别分析三种贸易方式的波动对新疆经济增长的影响和对其影响的效果,根据实证分析的结果,提出利于新疆经济增长的建议和措施。
Based on VAR model, this paper analyzes the causal link among general trade, processing trade and small-scale border trade of Xinjiang by using granger causality test, and finds that they exert certain impacts on Xinjiang＇s economic growth. Then the method of generalized impulse response and variance decomposition are used to test the influence of the fluctuations of the three trade types towards the economic growth of Xinjiang respectively. Finally, some suggestions and measures for economic growth in Xinjiang are proposed according to the results of the empirical analysis.
出处
《顺德职业技术学院学报》
2015年第3期44-48,共5页
Journal of Shunde Polytechnic
关键词
一般贸易
加工贸易
边境小额贸易
广义脉冲响应
general trade
processing trade
small-scale border trade
generalized impulse response
