摘要
针对现有尾矿坝风险评估方法未考虑人的有限理性的心理行为特征导致的评估结果不精确或误判的问题,提出一种基于前景理论的尾矿坝风险评估方法。该方法首先通过构建基于多位专家期望信息的参考分布,解决现有参考信息未考虑专家期望模糊性的问题;然后将监测指标与风险模态之间的函数关系与对应参考分布进行对比,确定收益或损失,进而计算出价值函数矩阵;再利用监测指标与风险模态之间的函数关系的均值构造权重函数矩阵;最后计算综合前景值,确定尾矿坝风险评估结果。实例验证结果表明:引入前景理论的风险评估方法更能体现人的心理行为对风险评估结果的影响,并且合理、有效,为尾矿坝的风险评估提供了新方法。
To solve the problem of inaccuracy and misjudge caused by the lack of consideration of human＇s limited rationality in adopting the existing tailing dam risk evaluation method, this paper proposes a new tailing dam risk evaluation method based on the prospect theory. The method firstly builds a reference dis- tribution based on the experts＇s expected information to solve the problem of existing reference information with no consideration of the fuzziness of experts expectation;next we compare the functional relationships between monitoring index and risk mode with the corresponding reference distribution to determine the gains or losses,and then calculate the value function matrix;thirdly by using the mean of the functional re- lationships between monitoring index and risk mode, we get weighting function matrix;finally we determine the tailing dam risk assessment result by calculating the value of the comprehensive prospect. Experimental results show that the risk assessment method based on the prospect theory can better show people＇s mental behavior on the result of risk estimation, is reasonable and effective and can provide a new method for risk assessment of the tailing dam.
出处
《安全与环境工程》
CAS
2015年第3期122-125,135,共5页
Safety and Environmental Engineering
基金
山西省回国留学人员科研资助项目(201403)
山西省青年科技研究基金项目(201415)
关键词
尾矿坝
风险评估
前景理论
参考点
参考分布
tailing dam
risk evaluation
prospect theory
reference point
reference distribution
