摘要
为探究突发群体事件各阶段的现象、动因和突变点等演化问题,通过剖析突发群体事件影响因素,将事件影响因素分为内在动因和外在诱因,以平息和爆发2种状态作为突发群体事件演化的趋势,构建突发群体事件演化模型,根据该模型解释突发群体事件各阶段的演化现象,找到突变点,分析演化趋势。结果表明:突发群体事件在内在动因和外在诱因的综合作用下,事件发展由量变到质变演化的3个层级阶段,其中,突变点对突发群体事件爆发起决定作用。
To explore the phenomena, causes, and abrupt change of a sudden mass incident at different stages, an analysis was conducted of the factors affecting the evolution of a sudden mass incident, which were classified into internal factors and external factors. Normally, a sudden mass incident can proceed towards suppression or outbreak. Based on this, a sudden mass incident evolution model was constructed to interpret the phenomena at different stages, reveal the abrupt change, and analyze the trend of evolu- tion. The results show that due to the combined effects of internal and external factors, the evolution of a sudden mass incident, from quantitative to qualitative change, can be divided into three stages, among which the abrupt change is the determinative factor governing the outbreak of the incident.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期159-164,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(71371091)
辽宁百千万人才工程人选项目(2012921062)
2013年辽宁省财政科研基金资助(13D17)
关键词
突变理论
突发群体事件
演化机理
内在动因
外在诱因
catastrophe theory
sudden mass incidents
evolution mechanism
internal motive
external factor
