摘要
以中小城市尤其是县城为目的地的城镇化路径在我国新型城镇化进程中扮演的角色愈发重要。本文建立了劳动力迁移的数理模型,使用有效消除内生性的系统GMM方法对2005-2011年中国县域面板数据进行了计量分析,研究表明:城乡差距中,收入差距扩大阻碍了劳动力迁移,不利于城镇化;而金融支持对城镇发展的偏向性有利于农村劳动力向非农产业转移,从而推动以就业为基础的城镇化进程,但是投资偏向对城镇化的推动并不明显。文章进一步使用非农就业人口数量为因变量的模型对以上结果进行了稳健性检验,发现研究结论较为可信。
The approach of urbanization towards small and medium cities,especially towards counties,is playing an increasing important role in the new-type urbanization of China.A mathematical model on labor migration is constructed here,and we analyze the Chinese county panel data from 2005-2011 by using system GMM estimation.Our research suggests the income disparity between urban and rural areas hinders the labor migration,which in turn does harm to the urbanization process.Financial support promotes urbanization because of its bias towards urbanization development,which is beneficial to the transfer of agriculture employment to non-agricultural industry.However,the bias of investment doesn ＇t affect the urbanization process obviously.This paper further runs the robust test with the quantity of non-agricultural employment,which shows the conclusion above is credible.
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第2期29-40,77,共13页
Economic Review
关键词
城镇化
县域城市城乡差距
劳动力迁移
GMM估计
Urbanization
County City
Urban-rural Disparity
Labor Migration
GMM Estimation
