摘要
利用更新模型计算未来几十年内发生强震的条件概率需要给出上一次大震的离逝时间T,而很多活动断裂上缺少历史大震的记载,若采用泊松模型则可能会低估强震发生的概率.针对这种缺少大震离逝时间的活动断裂,本文提出一种以记载完整的强震平静期长度Ts为参数的条件概率计算方法.以东昆仑断裂带塔藏段为实例,利用本文给出的条件概率计算方法得到该段未来50年发生强震的可能性为0.064 9.
Using the renewal model to compute the conditional probability that an earthquake occurs in the next few decades,the time that it has not occurred in the last T years is needed.However,due to lack of records of historical large earthquakes for many faults,the Poisson model may underestimate the possibil-ity of the occurrence of major earthquakes.As for the active faults where the historical strong earthquake records are absent,this paper proposed a new method for calculating the conditional probability by using the length of recor-ded quiet time as a parameter （T s ）.And then the Tazang fault segment was taken for a case study based on the new method.The result shows that the oc-currence probability of large earthquakes is about 0.064 9 in the next 50 years along the Tazang fault segment.
出处
《地震学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第6期1054-1061,共8页
Acta Seismologica Sinica
基金
国家科技支撑项目(2012BAK15B01-08)资助
关键词
更新模型
强震
条件概率
renewal model
strong earthquake
conditional probability
