摘要
农业现代化是“四化”同步发展的基础，其时-空分析有助于把握区域农业现代化发展的动因。基于1996～2010年陕甘宁三省（区）农业现代化相关数据计算综合得分，采用相对发展率、区位变异系数及面板数据回归等方法刻画其空间演变特征并揭示原因。结果表明：①15a间三省（区）农业现代化水平呈交替上升态势，2005～2010年农业现代化发展速度明显高于1996～2000年和2000～2005年，且日趋均衡。②2005～2010年28市（区）的格局演变较前2个时期更加显著，陕西省各市排序上升明显。③影响农业现代化格局演变的除系统内部要素外，财政支农力度、农业贷款、区域交通网络以及农村人力资本和农业技术的应用等因素也越来越显著。
The modernization of agriculture is the most fundamental one of ＂the four modernizations＂, and it has significant differences among the east, middle and west China, the same problems are also existed in the medium and micro level. The time-space analysis on the modernization of agriculture can help us to under- stand the mechanism of the changes about agricultural modernization. Computing the composite scores based on the figures about the modernization of agriculture in Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region, using various methods to describing it＇s characters of the space changing and reveal the reasons. The results show that scores of the agricultural modernization in 3 provinces are increased dramatically. The speed of development about modem- ization of agriculture in 2005-2010 is faster than that in 1996-2000 and 2000-2005 periods, and the trend of de- velopment is more and more balanced. It indicates that the policies have carried out by the government already play important roles to foster the agricultural modemization. The changing of the pattern about 28 cities in 2005-2010 is faster than the previous two periods, and the cities in Shaanxi province change more notable. The traditional agriculture changed slowly, but the modem agriculture is becoming more and more complicated, so it changes more frequently. Besides the factors existed in the system itself, there are also some other factors af- fect the pattern changing about the modernization of agriculture, such as financial support for agriculture, agri- cultural loans, regional traffic net, rural human capital and the application of the agricultural technology et, and play an more important role. In order to improve the development level of agricultural modernization in north- west region, we should increase the financial investment, promote the spread of agricultural technology and sci- ence, enhance the transportation network, and practice water-saving agriculture.
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期411-419,共9页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41271131)
西北大学"211工程"研究生自主创新项目(YZZ12001)资助
关键词
农业
现代化
格局
面板数据
陕甘宁地区
agriculture
modernization
pattern
panel data
Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region
