摘要
本文通过构建附加"金融加速器"的DSGE模型,模拟和测算了2008年前后中国宏观经济波动的来源及其变化,并分析了中国宏观经济政策框架应当如何调整才能更好地应对这些波动的变化,结果发现:(1)自加入世贸组织以来,中国经济具备了一定应对并平滑冲击的能力;(2)2008年之后,中国经济越来越多地受到国外冲击的影响,传统的贸易渠道的传导出现弱化,金融渠道的传导不断增强;(3)在2008年之后,以货币政策和财政政策为主的刺激政策成为了推动产出增长的主要因素,技术驱动作用明显下降;(4)在2008年之后,货币政策实施较之前更为有效,财政政策的有效性降低。最后,本文针对这些变化提出了未来政策框架调整的建议。
By means of the construction of the DSGE model of'the financial accelerator', we have, in this paper, simulated and measured the sauce for and the change in the fluctuations of China's macro economy before and after 2008 and analyzed how the policy framework of China's macro economy should adjust in order to better deal with the changes in these fluctuation. By the results of our study, we have discovered that(1) since joining the WTO, China has had certain ability to deal with and smooth shocks;(2) since the year of 2008, China's economy has been more and more affected by shocks from foreign countries, the conduction of the traditional trade channel has began to be weakened, and the conduction of the financial channel has constantly increased;(3)since 2008, the stimulation policies, mainly, the stimulation policy for the monetary policy and fiscal policy have become the main factors of pushing up the growth of output, and the function of technical driving has obviously dropped;(4) since 2008, the carrying-out of the monetary policy has been still more effective than before, and the effectiveness of the fiscal policy has been lowered. At the end of this paper, in order to deal with the changes, we have put forward our suggestions about the adjustment of the future policy framework.
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第12期38-50,187,共13页
Journal of Management World
