摘要
目的利用灰色系统GM（1,1）模型动态研究迁安市乙型病毒性肝炎的发病趋势,探讨合理的预测模型并预测,为该地区制定乙肝的预防监测措施提供决策依据。方法收集该市2004~2011年逐月乙肝疫情资料,利用Excel2003建立乙肝发病率灰色系统GM（1,1）模型,进行模型精度评价及外推预测。结果该市2004~2011年乙肝发病率呈现波动性上升趋势;建立GM（1,1）模型并经后验差检验（C=0.435,P=0.821）及残差检验模型精度合格,预测该市2012年逐月乙肝发病率,2012年乙肝发病率最低为14.340/10万,最高为19.195/10万。结论利用Excel电子表格实现了乙肝发病趋势分析和灰色系统GM（1,1）模型建模、评价及预测,提示2012年乙肝发病呈小幅上升趋势。
【Objective】Toinvestigate the viral hepatitis B incidence of Qian＇an and explore a reasonable prediction model applied grey system, which will offer decision-making foundation to prevention and surveillance of viral hepatitis B, at the same time, which will offer scientific reference to establish prediction model of other respiratory infections.【Methods】Collecting the hepatitis B incidence information of Qian＇an from 2004 to 2011 monthly, using Excel 2003 to establish the gray system GM（1,1） model of hepatitis B incidence and evaluating the accuracy of the mode as well as forecasting. 【Results】The monthly incidence of hepatitis B from 2004 to 2011 shows an upward trend. By posterior-error-test（C =0.435, P =0.821） and residual test, the model accuracy is qualified, so it can be used to predicted the hepatitis B incidence from 2012 monthly. The lowest and the highest hepatitis B incidence are14.340 per million and 19.195 per million in 2012. 【Conclusions】The use of Excel2003 spreadsheet has realized the incidence of hepatitis B trend analysis, grey system GM（1,1） modeling, evaluation and prediction, with the qualified model. The prediction results show that the hepatitis B incidence in 2012 has a slight upward trend.
出处
《中国现代医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第24期77-81,共5页
China Journal of Modern Medicine
基金
河北联合大学青年科学研究基金资助项目(z201225)
唐山市科技计划项目(No:13130215b)
