摘要
影响潮位观测预报的因素复杂,手工预报工作量大,需开发预报软件以满足决策需要。基于多元线性回归模型,结合现代计算机技术,设计开发了镇江站高潮位预报模块。应用该模块对镇江站高潮位进行了历史仿真。结果表明,该模块简单实用、运算速度快、预报精度高,完全满足预报规范要求,可用于镇江站高潮位预报。对类似感潮河段的潮位预报具有重要的实践意义和借鉴价值。
Zhenjiang Hydrological Station is located at a tidal reach,and the tidal level is influenced by complicated factors. So heavy work load was required for manual prediction,and it is necessary to develop prediction programs for decision- making. The module of tide level forecast based on multiple linear regression model for Zhenjiang Hydrology Station is designed by using modern computer technology. The historical peak tidal level was simulated by this module. The results showed that the module is simple and useful with fast calculation speed and high precision,which meets the prediction standard. Therefore,it can be applied to Zhenjiang Hydrological Station and has practical significance and reference value.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2014年第9期8-10,29,共4页
Yangtze River
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(41030636)
关键词
多元线性回归
潮位预报
预报模块
感潮河段
multiple linear regression
tidal level forecast
forecast module
tidal reach
