摘要
农业机械总动力是评价一个国家农业现代化程度的重要指标。本文采用混沌时间序列的一阶局域模型对新疆农业机械总动力进行了预测。误差分析表明,该一阶局域预测模型拟合值的平均绝对误差为0.64%,低于灰色理论GM(1,1)模型的0.90%,得到了较好的预测效果。
The total power of agricultural machinery is an important index to evaluate a country＇s agricultural modernization level. This paper forecasted the total power of agricultural machinery in Xinjiang by the means of first order local prediction model of chaos time series. Error analysis shows that the average absolute error of fitting value of the model is 0.64%, less than 0.90% of the grey theory GM（1, 1） model, and got the good forecast effect.
出处
《中国农机化学报》
北大核心
2014年第5期320-322,共3页
Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization
关键词
农机总动力
混沌时间序列
GM(1
1)模型
预测
total power of agricultural machinery
Chaos time series
GM（1
1） model
prediction
