摘要
随着我国经济发展和结构调整以及各项改革的深化,经常项目顺差保持低位,资本项目可能小幅逆差,未来趋向于总体均衡的基础将更加具备。在宏观调控中既要考虑国际收支的总体平衡,也要把握国际收支的格局演变。经常项目逆差和资本项目顺差的国际收支平衡格局对我国经济发展、保持国际竞争力和提升国民福利不利,也难以持续。从理论、现实和国际经验看,经常项目小幅顺差和资本项目小幅逆差的国际收支基本平衡格局是我国的较好选择。促进国际收支平衡不应以抑制出口作为主要手段,应当保持我国出口竞争力,并加大进口力度,同时着力疏通资本输出渠道,实现"经常项目小幅顺差、资本项目小幅逆差"的总体平衡。
With the development of Chinese economy, economic restructuring and the deepening of various reforms, there will be a better basis for China＇s Balance of Payments （BOP） to reach a general equilibrium in the future as the current account surpluses remain at a low level and the capital account is witnessing possibly small deficits. When China conducts macro-economic and financial management, it is necessary not only to consider the general balance of international payments, but also to understand and manage the changes in the BoP Pattern. The BoP pattern featuring current account deficits and capital account surpluses will have adverse impact on both the economic development and the national welfare, making them unsustainable. According to the theories, the reality and the international experiences, the BoP pattern of small current account surpluses and small capital account deficits is a better choice for China. But the export suppression shall not be used as a main approach to promote balanced BoP. Instead, it is right to maintain the competiveness of exports while expanding imports, and meanwhile vigorously boost outbound investment, so as to achieve a general equilibrium with ＂small current account surplus and small capital account deficits＂ .
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第10期10-22,共13页
Studies of International Finance
关键词
国际收支
经常项目
资本项目
Balance of Payments
Current Account
Capital Account
