摘要
我国能源消费面临着满足经济增长和降低能耗的双重压力,提高能源利用效率迫在眉睫。那么,提高能源利用效率能节约能源消费量吗?文章基于我国1992-2011年数据对我国技术进步的回弹效应进行了实证分析,结果表明,技术进步所导致的能源效率提高能节约能源消费量,但能源消费的回弹效应显著存在,我国能源消费的回弹效应介于9%-75%之间。在此基础上,本文对能源效率的回弹效应进行扩展,提出能源效率的回弹效应包括技术进步的回弹效应和结构调整的回弹效应两部分,理由是:根据现有能源效率分解方面的经验研究,能源效率提高可以分解为两种效应,一是技术进步效应;二是结构调整效应。因此,能源效率的回弹效应也可以分解为两种效应,即能源效率的回弹效应是指通过技术进步和结构调整可以提高能源效率,进而节约能源消费量,但技术进步和结构调整也会促进经济的快速增长,从而对能源产生新的需求,部分地抵消了所节约的能源。最后,基于中国1992-2011年数据的测算结果表明,结构调整的回弹效应要远大于技术进步的回弹效应,技术进步所带来的能源效率提高同样能节约能源消费量,能源消费的回弹效应也显著存在,由结构调整所带来的能源效率提高对节约能源贡献不大,不同年份中结构调整的回弹效应呈现出较大波动,绝大部分年份中的结构调整回弹效应处于两种极端情况,即大于100%或为负值。
Our country＇ s current energy consumption is faced with economic growth and reducing the energy intensity to meet the dual pressure, and it is urgent to improve the energy efficiency of energy imminent. So, improving the energy efficiency will save energy consumption？ The paper analyzes the rebound effect of technological progress based on Chinese data from 1992 -2011, the result shows that： energy efficiency that brought about by improving technological progress can save energy consumption, but the rebound effect of energy consumption exists significantly, the rebound effect of energy consumption ranged from 9% to 75%. On this basis, the paper extended the concept of rebound effect of energy efficiency, we think that rebound effect of energy efficiency should includes two parts ： one is the rebound effect of technological progress, and the other is the rebound effect of structural readjustment. The reason is that the improved energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects. One is the effect of technological progress, and the other is the effect of structure adjustment, so the rebound effect of energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects, The rebound effect of energy efficiency means that technological progress and structural adjustment can improve energy efficiency, and can save energy consumption, but technological progress and structural adjustment will promote the rapid growth of economy, and then have a new demand on energy that partially offset the saving energy. Finally the calculated results based on Chinese data from 1992 -2011 shows that the rebound effect of structural adjustment is much greater than the rebound effect of technology progress, energy efficiency brought about by improving technological progress also can save energy consumption, the rebound effect of energy consumption also exists significantly, improved energy efficiency brought about by structural readjustment plays a little important role in energy conservation, the rebound effect of structural adjustment in different years shows larger fluctuation, and the rebound effect of structural adjustment is at the two extremes in most of the years, which is greater than 100% or negative.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第10期64-67,共4页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社科基金重点项目"当前国际资源环境变化背景下加快我国经济发展方式转变的研究"(编号:09AZD047)
安徽省社科规划项目"资源逼迫驱动经济增长方式转变的机理与实证研究"(编号:AHSKQ2014D42)
安徽省高校优秀青年人才支持计划资助
关键词
能源效率
能源消费
回弹效应
技术进步
结构调整
energy efficiency
energy consumption
rebound effect
technological progress
structural readjustment
