摘要
文章综合考量生育、死亡、期初年龄结构和人口乡一城转移4个方面的因素，对20002010年中国城乡人口老龄化的影响因素进行分解分析。结果显示，城镇化是城乡人口老龄化的重要影响因素，其影响力的大小与乡一城转移人口的年龄选择模式密切相关。该阶段，15～29岁的年轻乡村人口有1／3转为城镇人口；人口的乡一城转移对乡村人口老龄化的贡献率为43．4％，高于任何人口自然变动因素的影响，是乡村人口老龄化的主导因素；乡一城转移人口有效降低了城市老龄人口比重，对城市人口老龄化的贡献率为-118．0％，仅次于期初年龄结构的影响力；城镇化对镇人口老龄化的影响较为有限。在人口自然变动诸因素中，期初年龄结构对城乡人口老龄化的影响远高于死亡率与生育率变动的影响。文章讨论了城镇化对城乡人口老龄化影响差异的成因及其发展趋势，并就这种差异的社会经济影响提出了政策建议。
This paper systematically studies the impact of fertility,mortality,initial age structure and rural-urban migration on population aging in rural and urban China from 2000 to 2010.The results show that urbanisation plays a crucial role in population aging in both rural and urban areas and its influence is closely linked to the age pattern of the migrants.One third of young rural population transformed into urban population during that period.The contribution of rural-urban migration to population aging in rural areas is 43.4 percent,which is higher than any influences from population's natural changes,and is dominant in population aging in the countryside.Rural-urban migration contributes-118.0 percent to population aging in urban areas by reducing the proportion of aged population and its influence was only lower than that of the initial age structure.The impact of urbanisation on population aging in towns is relatively limited.Among factors from population's natural changes,the influence of the initial age structure is higher than those from changes of mortality and fertility.The paper discusses the causes and developmental trends of impact of urbanisation on population aging between rural and urban areas,and addresses some policy recommendations to deal with socio-economic challenges.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期24-35,126,共12页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
教育部人文社科基金一般项目(编号:11YJCZH260)的阶段性研究成果
