摘要
文章利用系统动力学方法,建立包括经济、能源、环境和社会等四个子系统的动力学模型,利用Vensim软件对皖江城市带的近期和远期发展进行模拟分析,发现:资本能显著影响皖江城市带近期的经济发展,但科技和教育在远期的影响更大;消费水平是决定人口迁徙的主要原因;在缺乏产业大规模向外转移的情况下,皖江城市带的经济发展和环境保护存在一定的冲突,需要管理部门进行平衡,以更好促进皖江城市带生态文明建设。
This paper uses system dynamics method to construct system dynamics model including economy, energy,environment and society subsystems, and uses Vensim software to emulate recent and forward development of Wan-jiang Urban Belt.The results show that capital can significently affect recent economy development of Wan-jiang Urban Belt, but tecology and education can impose more influence on forward economy development of Wan-jiang Urban Belt, Consumption levels is the primary factor to affect the population migration, without outward transfer of industries, Wan-jiang Urban Belt has a confliction between economy development and environment potection, which need to be balanced by management department to accelerate ecology civilization construction of Wan-jiang Urban Belt.
出处
《铜陵学院学报》
2014年第3期60-64,共5页
Journal of Tongling University
基金
安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目"生态文明与皖江城市带产业升级途径选择"(AHSK11-12D12)
安徽高校省级自然科学研究项目"皖北地区农业与旅游业融合发展研究"(KJ2013B004)
关键词
皖江城市带
生态文明
可持续发展
产业转移
Wan-jiang urban belt
ecology civilization
sustainable development
industry transfer
