摘要
用蒙特卡罗的相关方法研究我国夏季大尺度降水与全球气温场关系 ,发现我国夏季大尺度降水与全球气温场有密切相关 ,以同期相关为最密切 ;除与热带西太平洋、东太平洋等海域有密切相关外 ,还与欧洲东部、北美洲东北部以及东亚等内陆地区的不同季节气温场有关系。研究还表明 ,印度洋地区春季气温和北美洲北部及北太平洋西南部夏季气温偏高时 ,长江中下游夏季易涝。且它们与长江中下游夏季降水的相关均有阶段性 。
Relationships between global temperature anomalies and the summer rainfall of China are investigated by the use of the global air temperature data from 1930 to 1998. It is found that the summer large-scale precipitation of China has close simultaneous correlations with the maritime area seasonal temperatures over the tropical western Pacific and tropical mid-east Pacific as well as the continental area temperatures over East Europe,the northeast of North America and East Asia.The relationships between the temperature anomalies and the summer rainfall of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River are aslo studied with Monte Carlo correlation method. Results indicate that when temperature over the Indian ocean region in spring, and temperature over the northern of North America and the southwest of northern Pacific in summer have positive anomalies, the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River are liable to waterlogging.And furthermore their correlations with the summer rainfall of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River show a stage character,and become stronger with time.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第3期334-341,共8页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目 4 9875 0 19
关键词
夏季
降水
全球气温场
蒙特卡罗的相关方法
长江
中国
China summer rainfall
global air temperature fields
Monte-Carlo correlation method
