摘要
本文在分析 13个变量的基础上 ,运用Logistic回归给出了判别上市公司财务危机的一个模型。本文模型包括 4个变量 :毛利率、其它应收款与总资产的比率、短期借款与总资产的比率、股权集中系数 ;其中的股权集中系数是公司治理结构的直接表征 ,也是本文模型异于其他预测模型的首要区别。本文模型的回判准确率为84 5 2 % ,而对 2 0 0 0年新增加的“ST”公司的判别准确率则达到了 95 45 %。
On the basis of factor-analyzing, we provide a discriminating model of financial distress for the listed companies. Our model includes four factors: marginal ratio?ratio of other accounts receivable to total assets?ratio of short-term liabilities to total assets and ownership concentration coefficient. Ownership concentration coefficient is a direct expression of corporate governance and is also the dominant difference from other forecasting models for financial distress. The accurate rates of our model are 84.52% for-1-year data and 95.45% for the new-added 'ST' companies of 2000.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
2002年第3期56-61,共6页
Forecasting
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目 (A70 0 72 0 18)
