摘要
本文首先比较了阿根廷与香港的汇率机制 ,它们虽然在形式上接近 ,但是两者有许多根本的不同。香港的联系汇率制度有来自中国内地在各个方面的强有力的支持。这种支持在其他采取货币局制度的国家里几乎看不到。这就是中国香港联系汇率制度的特点。由于货币局的弊端显现 ,使得越来越多的市场经济国家倾向于“美元化”。本文采取“协整检验”的办法 ,分析了将来港币“美元化”与“人民币化”的可能性。以是否存在协整关系作为判定尺度。虽然检验结果表明香港的一些经济变量与美国的有较强的协整关系 ,这是由于联系汇率制本身的缘故 ,但是出于政治、地理和其他要素的考虑 ,事实上港币美元化是行不通的 ;香港与中国内地的协整关系虽然较弱 ,但是将来港币人民币化的可能性还是存在的。
Comparison is made between the two cases of the currency board.Although similar in form, Hong Kong distinguishes itself by its strong backing from the Mainland of China,such support may not be found in other countries which adopt currency board.After failure in maintaining the currency board,many emerging market economies are prone to dollarization with the hope to get rid of currency crises once and for all.However,it makes no difference in the case of Hong Kong SAR.The cointegration test is conducted to examine the possibility of dollarization and yuanization,which is measured by the existence of cointegratien. The results indicate that owing to SAR itself,some economic variables of Hong Kong have strong cointegration with those of the United States,but it is impracticable in reality.for Hong Kong SAR to dollarize the currency.While it is possible for Hong Kong dollar to be yuanized,the cointegration between Hong Kong and the Mainland of China is weak.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2002年第5期23-30,共8页
Journal of Finance and Economics
