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人类生育过程的马尔柯夫模型及生育率指数

A Markov Chain Model of Human Reproduction and Fertility Index
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摘要 一、引言 在研究人类生育的数学模型中,有以妇女年龄为基本变量的年龄别生育模型。 In this paper, a class woman with determined age and a given number of children ever born is regarded as a state and Markov chain modelling woman birth process is used. The state probability distributions give out the age-parity structure information of birth woman and the state transition probability is determined by the age-parity fertility which determines one year birth process. A fertility index-Pure Total Fertility-with age-parity fertility matrix is calculated. PTF represents how many children a woman entering birth period will have if she has birth according to the age-parity fertility matrix. Pure Total Fertility does not contain any age-parity structure information of birth woman.
出处 《系统工程理论与实践》 EI CSCD 北大核心 1991年第1期17-23,共7页 Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
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