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麦蚜防治决策过程中的尖角突变模型突变区域及防治指标的研究初报 被引量:22

Study on the Cusp Catastrophe Model, Sudden Change Region and Controlling Target During Strategy of Wheat Aphids Control
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摘要 研究了麦田以蚜虫为主要控制对象的生态系统,结果符合尖角突变模型。建立了确定性的麦蚜尖角突变模型,并确立了突变区域。状态变量(蚜虫)与控制变量(气候、天敌、作物)随时间变化,其控制变量所决定的突变区域边界值就是麦蚜动态防治指标。研究从突变理论的角度证明麦蚜为害关键期为灌浆期,麦蚜生态系统一旦进入稳定为害区,其逆转过程很难完成。因此,必须在其突变至稳定为害区之前加以防治。另外,化学防治对典型r-对策的蚜虫是有效防治手段之一。研究还证明了确定性麦蚜尖角突变模型符合突变理论的四个重要性质。 The ecological system of wheat field is studied in this paper,in which Aphids are amainly controling objects. The result shows that it suits to cusp catastrophe model, the definite cusp catastrophe model of wheat Aphids is set up, and sudden change region is determined.The state variable (Aphids) and controlling variable (climate, natural enemy, crop) vary with time variation. The limit value of sudden change region dependent on control variable is just dynamic target for control. It is showed that the critical moment damaged by Aphids is in the milk; when the ecological system get in to damage region, the return process is difficult to be finished. So, before sudden change the Aphids must be controled. On the other hand, chemical control is one of effective methods for pest of typical r-strategy——Aphids.It is also indicated that the definited catastrophe model suit to 4 characters of catastrophe theory.
作者 赵惠燕
出处 《系统工程》 CSCD 1991年第6期30-35,共6页 Systems Engineering
关键词 麦蚜 尖角突变模型 防治 突变区域 Catastrophe theory Cusp catastrophe model Sudden change region Control target Wheat Aphids
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